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Bet On Sprint Cup
August 21st Auto Racing news ... Bet On Sprint Cup at betonsprintcup.com
NASCAR: Irwin Tools Night Race (7:43 PM ET, ABC)
2021-08-21
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves on to Thunder Valley for the “Bristol Night Race”, as it is most often called. To honor that tradition, this Saturday night’s event has been tabbed the Irwin Tools Night Race, replacing the longstanding Sharpie 500 name. This event puts short track racing on center stage under the lights at perhaps the circuit’s most exciting track. With 43 cars going around a half-mile oval banked at 36 degrees, the track is the closest thing to bumper cars that NASCAR has to offer. Strangely though, since the wider COT cars have been put in play in 2007, the actual number of wrecks and cars not finishing races here has dropped noticeably. This has drawn the ire of fans, who’ve actually complained of Bristol becoming boring. One driver who isn’t complaining is Kyle Busch, who has won three of the last seven Bristol races, including this one a year ago. He is listed at 6-1 by to win this week, just behind Jimmie Johnson (5-1), the spring winner here.
Since things are so different at Bristol nowadays as compared to the early part of the decade when drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch adopted this track as their own, it only makes sense to turn to the post-COT races when it comes to handicapping. In that sense, Kyle Busch is the man to beat. He boasts an average finish of 5.7 in the last seven Bristol races, with two wins and an additional Top 5. One of those trips to Victory Lane came in March. Busch easily paces the field in COT-laps led here as well, with 900. Next in line in that stat is Tony Stewart (10-1), with 525, followed by Kasey Kahne (25-1) with 305. Interestingly, neither of those latter two drivers have won here in that span. Carl Edwards (10-1) is another man to consider, as he has two Bristol, both in this race, in 2007 & 2008. With an average finish of 9.7, those are his only two Top 5’s however. Jimmie Johnson’s 5-1 favorite status is eye opening, since prior to his spring win, he had only averaged a 16.5 finish win one Top 5.
Greg Biffle (12-1) is strong at Bristol when he keeps his nose clean, and he usually contends for the win. His past two efforts on this track ended in fourth-place finishes and with only three poor results in a 15-race career, he's finished 12th or better in every other event. The No. 16 team also has momentum on their side with three consecutive top-fives on oval tracks that included a victory at Pocono a few weeks ago. Jeff Gordon (12-1) rarely has two bad races in a row, so last week's 27th-place finish should be put aside. On short tracks, he's been the class of the field in the past three years. Despite failing to win at Bristol, Martinsville, or Richmond, he's amassed nine top-fives, 12 top-10s, and 14 top-15s in 15 starts. Notably, his only three results outside the top 10 since the start of 2008 all came at Bristol, but his five career victories there more than makes up for the deficit. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1) is a very interesting case in that he is second among all drivers in average finish in the COT, at 9.3, including two Top 5’s. However, he has rarely been out front, leading just a single lap in those seven races. Denny Hamlin (10-1) and Kevin Harvick join Gordon among the three-time Top 5 finishers here since ’07, ranking just behind the mark of four held by Busch and Biffle. Incidentally, Mark Martin, at 30-1, had the dominant car here a year ago only to succumb late to Busch. Don’t be surprised to see Martin do well Saturday.
Among those you may want to avoid this week are Jamie McMurray (35-1), Juan Montoya (25-1), Matt Kenseth (20-1), and Clint Bowyer (20-1). This spring, Bowyer had a blown engine and finished 40th. His last Bristol top-10 came in fall 2008 and he's had progressively worse results in each passing race. Kenseth used to love coming to Bristol, but has averaged just a 16.7 finish in the COT with a single Top 5. He also is not clicking yet with his new crew chief. McMurray and Montoya both have average COT finishes in the 20’s at Bristol without a single Top 5. Montoya has at least paced 29 laps though, compared to McMurray’s zero.
Qualifying at Bristol used to be more critical, as prior to 2007, the average starting spot of the winner was a low 6.8 in Bristol’s 70 races. Since the COT has been around, the average has jumped to 10.4. Because of the fewer cautions and less trouble to deal with, it has proven more important to run well in practice rather than a qualifying lap. As proof, the average Happy Hour rank of the last seven Bristol winners is 9.6, but more importantly, four of those winners ranked in the Top 5. The winner usually gets out front and is able to stay out trouble. This week’s lineup will be set at 5:40 PM ET on Friday, ironically, right after Happy Hour. The Irwin Tools Night Race green flag is scheduled to wave on Saturday night at around 7:40 PM ET.
Brickyard 400 (1:15 PM ET, ESPN)
2021-07-24
Seven races remain until the NASCAR Cup Series reaches the Chase, or the postseason if you will. After enjoying the last weekend off, the drivers get back to work at famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where they’ve been coming once annually for the Brickyard 400 ever since ’94. There has been just a short list of dominant drivers here historically, with Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett sharing honors in the early years and since passing the torch on to Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. In fact, those latter two have won the last five races at Indy and for good reason are listed as the favorites for Sunday according to .
With just seven races remaining to qualify for the Chase, this race takes on significance, perhaps even more than usual, since Indianapolis’ sister track, Pocono Raceway, also is on the upcoming schedule. Drivers that fare well at this 2-1/2 mile flat superspeedway typically do well at Pocono, which has similar features. That said, a victory this week is a much-coveted one, both for the pageantry of the host venue, the Brickyard, as well as the prize money disbursed to the winner. As is usually the case, the stars tend shine brightest on the biggest stage, as the last seven winners of this race are mega-stars. Jimmie Johnson & Tony Stewart have won the last five Brickyard 400’s, with Johnson being the defending two-time champion. Jeff Gordon won the 2004 event and Kevin Harvick reached Victory Lane in 2003. Of course, those latter two are currently the 2010 standings.It’s interesting to note that Johnson, winner of three of the last four races here, went on to his first of four straight series titles after taking home his first Checkered Flag from Indy. In fact, that feat has happened now eight times in 16 years, further signifying the importance of winning the Brickyard 400.
Most experts believe that there is only a slight difference between the car setups used at Indianapolis to those at Pocono. Keep that in mind when handicapping, since coincidentally, another trip to Pocono follows this week’s event. The top three in the June race at Pocono were Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Tony Stewart. Looking at the results at the two tracks combined in the COT (since ’08), you’ll find Jimmie Johnson atop the heap in almost every key statistical category. In seven total races, he leads in Poles (2), Wins (2), Average Finish (5.1), Top 5’s (4), Top 10’s (6), and Laps Led (241). It’s no wonder that oddsmakers have established him as the 7-2 favorite. Stewart is next at 7-1, and he boasts four Top 5’s as well in that 7-race stretch, along with an average finish of 11.0. Denny Hamlin is listed at 8-1, with 222 laps led and four Top 5’s. However, his success has come mostly at Pocono, with his average finish at Indy in four career starts just 17.3.
Beyond the three favorites in terms of stats and odds, you’ll find a handful of other drivers capable of competing for the win on Sunday. Jeff Gordon, at 8-1 heads that list. He has a remarkable 10 Top 5’s in 2010, though he’s yet to reach Victory Lane. Having spent time in his childhood in Indiana, many consider this Gordon’s home track, and he could break the winless drought on Sunday. It would be his career-leading 5th Indy win. Kyle Busch also shares 8-1 odds, although he has not won in five Inday starts, and has averaged just a 24.6 finish in the seven flat superspeedway races in the COT. Juan Montoya (12-1), Kevin Harvick (12-1), Jeff Burton (14-1), Carl Edwards (20-1) and Kasey Kahne (20-1)will wrap up my own personal short list of contenders for the weekend. Typically, a driver has to be either running very well at the time, or have a rich history at Indy to win the Brickyard 400. All five meet one or both of that criteria. Of the group, Kahne & Edwards are the only winners at a track like this in the last seven COT races, though Montoya has threatened to win and seems to love coming back to the Brickyard, a track he ran while in open wheel racing. The Childress guys, Harvick and Burton, are running very well over the last month.
Among the drivers you may want to avoid this week, at least in terms of the numbers, are Kurt Busch (12-1), Matt Kenseth (25-1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1), Martin Truex (35-1), and Jamie McMurray (35-1).Busch has surprisingly bad numbers at Pocono and Indy in the COT, with an average finish of 23.6 and two DNF’s. Kenseth is struggling to put things together during his break-in period with his new crew chief, and has averaged just 15.7 in the past seven flat superspeedway races. Junior, Truex, and McMurray are longshots as the odds suggest, and have combined for only three Top 10 finishes and 17 laps led in 21 starts.
This week’s qualifying for the Brickyard 400 begins Saturday at 10:10 AM ET, with the race green flag scheduled for Sunday at 1:19 PM ET. With track position being critical, the qualifying usually plays a huge factor, with eight of the previous 16 winners starting in the top 5. Jimmie Johnson started 16th a year ago and won. No winner has ever come from worse than the 27th starting spot. Johnson has also finished 3rd in ’09, and 1st in ’08 in Happy Hour, so if he demonstrates similar speed this weekend in practice, look out.
NASCAR: Lifelock.com 400 (7:30 PM ET, TNT)
2021-07-09
The NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit opens up the second half of the season at Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, Il. Saturday’s Lifelock.com 400, will be the 10th annual race at the 1.5 mile tri-oval, and so far, only two drivers have reached Victory Lane more than once, current series leader Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart, with two wins each. Strangely, despite that and the fact that both are in the top four among active drivers in Top 5’s & Top 10’s at this track, you won’t find either listed among the race favorites. In fact, according to , at least five drivers are listed better than Harvick at 12-1, and Stewart at 20-1. Can they pull the upset?
Kevin Harvick takes a huge point lead into the season’s second half, 212-points over Jeff Gordon and 225-points over Jimmie Johnson. Kurt Busch (-245), Denny Hamlin (-284), and Kyle Busch (-308) round out the Top 6. Of those, only Gordon has yet to win a race this season, as the others have all accomplished that feat at least twice, led by Johnson and Hamlin at five apiece. The odds for this week’s Lifelock.com 400 are highly reflective of the standings, as the Top 6 are the favored six for the race. Johnson is the official favorite, at 7-2 odds, despite the fact that he has never won in Chicago in eight starts. Hamlin is next at 6-1 but has a far from rich history here. Kyle Busch is 7-1, and won this race two years ago. Gordon is 8-1, and won here is 2006, although that was when they ran on Sunday afternoon. Kurt Busch is 10-1, and Harvick is 12-1.
Kevin Harvick comes off the huge win at Daytona in which he alternated between helping teammate and frontrunner for most of the 166 laps. Kasey Kahne (15-1) came in second, followed up by Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton (12-1) and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1). There were several huge multi-car wreck incidents as well that collected among others Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Juan Montoya, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray. Of those, Newman, Logano, and McMurray took the biggest hit in the standings, as each remains on the outside of the Chase looking in right now. Earnhardt, Jr. was the biggest beneficiary, climbing up into the Top 12 in 11th, seven points ahead of Carl Edwards, and 46-points in front of Mark Martin.
Last year’s race here set a record for fewest cautions and was thoroughly dominated by Mark Martin, who led 195 of the 267 laps and spent every single lap in the Top 15. That win was one of several Martin had by this time a year ago, but unfortunately, he seems so far removed from even contending for a win in 2010. Oddsmakers have taken notice, listing him at 25-1. As mentioned earlier, the race at Chicagoland used to be held on Sunday afternoon. Consistently brutal weather conditions forced a move by NASCAR prior to the 2008 race though, as it seemed as if race day always fell on the hottest day of the year. I should know, since I actually attended this race in 2006 in near 100-degree temperatures. When the races were run in the afternoon there was typically a lot of attrition, due to both wrecks and motors going. Heat, drivers, and engines just don’t seem to mix well. Thus, if you’re really getting down to statistics when handicapping this week’s race, you may want to consider just looking at the last two years’ events. Those were both at night, and both in the COT.
The stats show Tony Stewart leading the way in average finish in the last two visits to Chicagoland, at 4.5. he has 4th & 5th place finishes to his credit, adding to five other Top 5’s he had beforehand at this venue. That leads the career list. Interestingly, Stewart, for his overall success, has only led 12 laps in the two races here of ’08 & ’09. The drivers most frequently at the front have been Mark Martin (195 – all in ’09 win) and Kyle Busch (165 – all in ’08 win). Jimmie Johnson is next among non-winners with 73 laps led while Greg Biffle has paced 43 laps. Johnson has also averaged a 5th place finish in the last two events with Jeff Gordon third in that category at 6.5. The drivers that have really struggled here the last two years have been Jeff Burton (28.0 avg. fin.), Carl Edwards (23.0), Kurt Busch (22.5), and Denny Hamlin (22.5). For Hamlin, the last two years have continued a trend that finds him averaging just a 19th place finish in four career Joliet starts.
Overall, as you handicap this race, take a look at the recent action at the so called “cookie cutter” tracks, the 1-1/2 mile ovals like Texas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Lowe’s, particularly those at Lowe’s where the action is also under the lights. Incidentally, Kurt Busch won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May. Neither qualifying nor practice speeds have amounted to much when it comes to indicators of success here, with only one of the nine previous winners starting in the Top 5 (average 14.9) and only one of the last five practicing better than 12th (17.8). The green flag for the Lifelock.com 400 is set to drop on Saturday night at 7:46 PM ET on TNT again.
NASCAR: Coke Zero 400 (7:30 PM ET, TNT)
2021-07-02
It’s had a handful of different names over the years, including Firecracker 400, Pepsi 400 and now Coke Zero 400, but Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona is always one of the best on the yearly schedule. This race is how NASCAR honors the 4th of July weekend, and it is well-recognized for fireworks both on and off the track. The combination of night racing, superspeedway action at the circuit’s most famous track, and holiday pageantry make the Coke Zero 400 “must-see TV”. On top of all that, Daytona is always competitive down to the final pass of the start-finish line, and while there are certain favorites who will be out front for much of Saturday’s race, underdogs are certainly capable of winning. Consider Jamie McMurray, winner of February’s Daytona 500, and owner of three straight Top 2 finishes on plate tracks. Oddsmakers show him at an intriguing 16-1 price.
There are a handful of drivers who have consistently set the pace at Daytona and Talladega since the introduction of the COT in NASCAR back in ’07. In fact, there are four drivers that have led over 200 laps in the 11 plate races run in the new cars. Those would include Kyle Busch (310 LL, 13-2 odds), Denny Hamlin (244, 18-1), Tony Stewart (242, 6-1), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (201, 10-1). Of the four, Hamlin and Junior haven’t registered a win in that span, while Busch and Stewart have recorded two each. Jamie McMurray is the only other driver with multiple plate wins in that time frame. Furthermore, Stewart, Busch, and McMurray make up the last five winners of this race, with Stewart having accomplished the feat three times, including last July. As you analyze the stats for the plate tracks, note that they can be deceiving, as Busch and Stewart, despite their lofty laps led totals and multiple wins, are tied for just fourth in average finish in plate races since October ’07, with 15.91. A driver is just as likely to score a Top 10 finish in these races as he is to wreck and DNF.
As I just indicated, average finish statistics at Daytona can be misleading. Look no further than the fact that the driver with the lowest average finish in his career here is Clint Bowyer (14-1), with a very modest 17.9. He only owns two Top 5’s without a win in eight career starts. Jeff Gordon (8-1) paces the field with six career DIS wins but has not reached Victory lane at this prestigious venue since February ’05. Therefore, with the favorites being recognized earlier, albeit some with less than favorite odds, are there any other darkhorses to consider? Of course, and I would start with Kurt Busch (8-1), Matt Kenseth (12-1), Kevin Harvick (13-1), and Ryan Newman (22-1), each of whom is highly regarded for his plate-track prowess. In fact, the driver with the best record during the past three years is Kurt Busch. He entered this year's Daytona 500 with a five-race streak of top-10s; better still, four of these were top-fives and that means he was in contention to win on any given weekend. He hasn't won on this track yet, but with three second-place finishes, he's come close. His willingness to push other drivers across the finish line is actually part of his strength, in fact, because it means he is less likely to get into trouble while trying to make an ill-timed pass. Kenseth, Harvick, and Newman have all actually benefitted recently from Busch’s help, each with a recent Daytona 500 win to his credit. Their timing has proven to just be a little better than that of Busch. Juan Montoya, David Ragan, Elliott Sadler, and Kasey Kahne are also capable plate racers.
You may have noticed that I’ve yet to mention the name of Jimmie Johnson, the four-time defending series champion and winner of the series’ last two events. The truth is that Daytona has been far from his best track with just one win, 59 total laps led, and an average finish of 21.2 in 16 career starts. oddsmakers don’t seem to be taking him all that seriously for Saturday, listing him at 10-1 odds, well below his normal standard. In the COT, his average Daytona finish dips to 23.6 and he’s only been out front only five laps in five races. Jeff Gordon’s numbers haven’t been strong either, as he seems to have lost some of the plate track touch that highlighted the early part of his career. In the 11 COT plate races, he has a win, but that is his only top 5 in that span with an average finish of 24.8. Martin Truex has been even worse, with an average finish of 25.0 in those 11 starts and just a single Top 10. Of course, you can’t talk about plate track racing without mentioning the name of Mark Martin, whose disdain for it is well documented. The stats reflect it too. Though qualifying very well (5.9 average start), Martin has been bumped back often, with an average finish of 22.9 in his last eight starts.
It should be a colorful, exciting, and patriotic event as always, as the Sprint Cup Series runs its 18th race of the season, reaching the halfway point. The Green Flag is set to drop on Saturday at 7:49 PM ET on Saturday night. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the high speed excitement…
NASCAR: Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:15 PM ET, TNT)
2021-06-19
NASCAR hits the road for the first time this weekend, or more specifically, the road course, as the Cup Series takes on the twists and turns on Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, California. Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 is the first of two-season road racing events, races that seem to be generating more and more excitement each season. Once vilified by fans of the sport for the obvious differences from the schedule’s other races, these events have become widely embraced. Competition is fierce, there is plenty of beating and banging on the track at any given time, and the presence of road course “ringers” like Boris Said and P.J. Jones offer quite a changeup from the ovals. Still, even with the added talent and varied skills needed to win these races, it’s always a series regular that leaves with the checkered flag. The driver favored to do so this week is Tony Stewart, who at 5-1, is looking for his third win at Sonoma and 8th road course triumph overall.
There are several drivers who typically run up-front at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, the two road courses, and that collective group is reflected in the odds for this week. Besides Tony Stewart at 5-1, Jeff Gordon, Juan Montoya, and Marcos Ambrose are listed at 6-1, and Kyle Busch is 7-1. No one else is in single-digits. Stewart’s average finish at the two tracks since ’07 has been 3.7 in the last six races, all Top 10 finishes, and he has led 72 laps during that span. Gordon owns the most career wins and pole positions at Infineon, with five each. He is in a bit of a road win drought though, having gone 0 for 6 in the COT races since ’07. Juan Montoya has been very impressive at this facility, owning his only ever Cup Series win plus an average finish of 4.3 in three prior starts, despite starting with an average spot of 23.3. Ambrose, like Montoya, is a former road series driver, and thus is very comfortable at tracks like Sonoma. In his five road events in Cup over the last three years, he has three Top 5’s and an average finish of 12.5. He has yet to break into the win column though. Busch is the only driver other than Stewart to win more than one road race in the last three years, and he also leads the field with 155 laps led in that time frame.
Laps led are a very good indicator at road courses, since the laps don’t click away that fast and running out front is usually reserved for the best cars. In that sense, some of the other drivers you might want to consider for Sunday as potentially strong underdogs include the following, all of whom have led at least 30 laps in the last six road course events: Robby Gordon (51), Kasey Kahne (41), Jamie McMurray (36), Denny Hamlin (36), Jimmie Johnson (33), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (33). Of the six, Hamlin would be the least surprising winner, as he is red-hot of late, leading the series with five wins in 2010, and priced at a fair 12-1. Johnson is a season low 15-1, providing a good indicator of what the experts think of his chances, at least where winning is concerned. No one else in the group is better than 20-1, with Junior actually represented in the FIELD option for wagering, which in a group of 22 other drivers, would pay 10-1.
Some of the usual contenders that have really struggled on the road have been David Reutimann (32.3 avg. fin, 4 starts), Mark Martin (29.0 in two starts last season), Jeff Burton (24.2 avg. fin, 0 laps led), Kevin Harvick (23.0 avg, 0 LL’s), and Matt Kenseth (16.3 avg., 1-Top 10, 0 LL’s). All of these stats date back to the beginning of the ’07 season. Interestingly, Martin used to be one of the series’ top road course aces, however he seems to have lost some of that edge from taking the ’07 & ’08 seasons to run part-time, skipping these events. Also, with as sharp as the Roush Racing Team seems to be at tracks like Michigan, they have proven far from a contender at Infineon and Watkins Glen. In fact, Carl Edwards, on his best days, seems to be the only driver capable of running out front at any given time.
While the places to pass and speeds at this track are limited, the dramatic track change and the storyline of “hired guns” taking on series regulars normally makes for an exciting race. The entire weekend got started with qualifying at 6:35 pm ET on Friday. Starting position at Infineon used to prove more critical, but strangely, the average starting spot of the winner in the last five years here has been an unimpressive 17.0. Happy Hour rank has been significantly more important, with an average rank of 6.2. The race is scheduled for 3:19 PM ET on TNT Sunday.
NASCAR: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 (1:00 PM ET, TNT)
2021-06-11
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series continues its summer tour with the first of two stops over the next eight weeks at Michigan International Speedway. The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 is slated for Sunday and a quick check of the odds board finds all of the usual top dogs expected to win. Jimmie Johnson is the official favorite at 7-2, with Kyle Busch next at 5-1, and both Jeff Gordon & Denny Hamlin the only other drivers in single digits at 8-1. Strangely, none of that quartet has won at Michigan since Jeff Gordon did so in 2001. In fact, he is the only one of them who has a win at this facility. Perhaps oddsmakers, or more importantly bettors, should take a closer look at drivers like Carl Edwards (20-1) Kurt Busch (10-1), or Matt Kenseth (15-1), more recent winners at MIS. Mark Martin (20-1), the defending champion of this race, could also be worth a shot.
The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the “Chase for the Cup”. Currently, Kevin Harvick (20-1) leads the standings by 19 points over Kyle Busch. The hot driver though is Denny Hamlin, who sits in third, 136 points back. Hamlin picked up his fourth win of the young season last week at Pocono. Again though, none of the three has ever won at Michigan and moreover, none has averaged any better than an average finish of 12.5 in the four COT races run at this track over the last two years. If there ever was a race where an upset winner could emerge this might be it. When you consider that Brian Vickers won in the most recent race here last August, the chances are even greater.
When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.1), and average finish over the last two years (4.0). In his last four starts, he has won, scored three Top 5’s, and led 107 total laps. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.9), and also has two Top 5 finishes in the last four races. Elsewhere, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Greg Biffle, and Jeff Gordon each also boast a pair Top 5 finishes in the COT. If you’ve noticed a pattern here, it’s that Roush Racing seems to have a good handle on what it takes to win at Michigan. You may have also noticed that the name of Jimmie Johnson has not been mentioned in the top finishing stats. That is because he has endured some bad luck at MIS of late, much like his recent 2010 season. Though he has led a dominant 356 laps in the last four races here, he has averaged a finish of 19.5 without a single Top 5.
So much of what happens nowadays in NASCAR hinges on which drivers are hot lately. As such, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin have to be considered contenders on Sunday. Between the three of them, they have won six of the last seven races overall. They are also three of the Top 5 in the season standings. Of those, Kyle has the best recent resume at Michigan, with an average finish of 12.8 in the COT and 48 laps led during that four-race span. Hamlin has done reasonably well throughout his career, with an average finish of 13.3 but just 5 total laps led in eight starts. Kurt has two career wins at MIS, but those are his only Top 5 finishes among an average of 20.3 in 18 starts.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season’s second race won by Jimmie Johnson, who held off the trio of Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Joey Logano. With this being the “sister-track”, expect all of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday.
Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, seven of the last 10 winners, including Mark Martin last year (32nd), started outside the Top 10. In fact, Martin became the first driver to start worse than 28th and win. Practice in the COT era has been a huge factor, with the winner in the last four races averaging a rank of 2.75 in Happy Hour with three of the four ranking first or second. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 1:15 PM ET on Sunday.
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